It is like reviewing Fifty Shades of Grey—the mere fact the someone publicly admits he has read it degrades both him and his listeners. My only defense is that Steve Bannon has repeatedly stated this book is a major influence on his thought. So I sought wisdom by following his lead, but instead, I got a rotten egg. But it will be a task, after subjecting me to The Fourth Turning. This will not be a long review; that merely prolongs the agony. [PUNIQGOOGLESNIPMIX-1
generational cohort theory
Writing in November, after he was appointed to the White House staff, I described how Bannon had interviewed me for a documentary film he made in 2009. Bannon interviewed both Neil Howe and myself at length Bill Strauss had died in 2007 about its implications for the immediate future. Looking at the whole sweep of American history, Strauss and Howe realized that a great crisis, involving the death of an old order and the birth of a new one, had occurred every 80 years at least since the 18th century. These crises included the period of the American Revolution and the Constitution 1774-1794 , the Civil War about 1860-1868 , and the Depression and the Second World War 1929-1945. While they were far too wise to attempt to predict exactly what might trigger it or what course it might take, they listed terrorism, financial crises and federal-state conflicts as possible events that might begin the new era.
fourth turning 2018
Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake.
generational theory pdf
There are all kinds of benefits to this kind of analysis. One involves testing the limits of a given method Delphi, trends extrapolation, etc. A second benefit concerns blind spots. This is an understandable mistake, given the huge dimensions of the US-Soviet struggle, not to mention the stakes possible human extinction , but it was a mistake. Seeing it now drives us to look for our own blind spots.
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